# Marimont Capital

> Marimont Capital


## Posts

- [CPI March 2026 Treasury Yields: Iran Ceasefire Meets Record-Low Sentiment](https://mariemontcapital.com/cpi-march-2026-treasury-yields-iran-ceasefire/): CPI March 2026 Treasury Yields: Iran Ceasefire Meets Record-Low Sentiment | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending April 12, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The CPI March 2026 report delivered a bifurcated inflation picture—headline at +0.9% monthly on a 21.2% gasoline spike, but core at just +0.2%—while an Iran ceasefire drove the week’s dominant repricing event. Treasury yields declined 3–4 basis points across the front end as oil’s collapse briefly resurrected rate-cut hopes, though the 30-year held firm at 4.91% (96th percentile). Credit spreads tightened materially, with high yield OAS compressing 30 basis points to 266bp, but record-low […]
- [NFP March 2026 Treasury Yields: Jobs Beat Meets Iran Oil Shock](https://mariemontcapital.com/nfp-march-2026-treasury-yields-iran-oil-shock/): NFP March 2026 Treasury Yields: Jobs Beat Meets Iran Oil Shock | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending April 5, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: NFP March 2026 delivered a headline beat of +178,000 jobs against a 59,000 consensus, but Treasury yields still declined on the week as mid-week ceasefire optimism around the U.S.-Iran conflict drove a rally that overshadowed Friday’s selloff. The 10-year yield fell 8 basis points to 4.35%, credit spreads tightened materially—HY OAS narrowed 29bp to 296bp—and the VIX dropped from 31.05 to 23.87 as markets found temporary footing after five weeks of […]
- [Treasury Yields March 2026: Iran War Drives Rate Hike Fears](https://mariemontcapital.com/treasury-yields-march-2026-iran-war-rate-hike-fears/): Treasury Yields March 2026 Iran War: Rate Hike Fears Rise as Auctions Weaken | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending March 29, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Treasury yields March 2026 moved higher for a fourth consecutive week as the Iran war oil shock, three consecutively weak Treasury auctions, and a shift in Fed rate expectations combined to push the 10-year to 4.43%—its highest close since July 2025. Markets crossed a notable threshold on Friday, with fed funds futures pricing a greater-than-50% probability of a rate hike by year-end, a reversal from the two cuts expected […]
- [FOMC March 2026: Treasury Yields Rise as Oil Shock Persists](https://mariemontcapital.com/fomc-march-2026-treasury-yields-oil-shock/): FOMC March 2026 Rate Decision: Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Holds, Oil Shock Persists | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending March 22, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The FOMC March 2026 rate decision to hold at 3.50–3.75% — paired with an upgraded inflation forecast and hawkish dot plot — triggered a broad repricing of the Treasury curve. The 10-year yield rose 11 basis points to 4.39%, its highest close since July 2025, while a hotter-than-expected PPI report (+0.7% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus) and continued Strait of Hormuz disruption from the Iran conflict kept energy-driven inflation […]
- [FOMC March 2026 Preview: GDP Slows as 30-Year Treasury Nears 5%](https://mariemontcapital.com/fomc-march-2026-preview-treasury-yields-gdp/): FOMC March 2026 Preview: Q4 GDP Revised to 0.7% as 30-Year Yield Approaches 5% | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending March 15, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The FOMC March 2026 meeting arrives at a precarious juncture as Q4 GDP was revised sharply lower to just 0.7% while core PCE re-accelerated to 3.1%, a combination that pushed Treasury yields higher across the curve in a near-parallel sell-off. The 30-year yield reached 4.91%, its 95th percentile over five years, as the bond market signaled that inflation risk—amplified by the Iran-driven oil shock and prospective Section 301 tariffs—outweighs the […]
- [Treasury Yields March 2026: Iran Oil Shock and −92K Payrolls](https://mariemontcapital.com/treasury-yields-march-2026-iran-oil-shock-payrolls/): Treasury Yields March 2026: Iran Oil Shock and Negative Payrolls Drive Worst Bond Week Since April | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending March 8, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Treasury yields posted their largest weekly increase since April 2025 as the U.S.-Israel military strikes on Iran and subsequent Strait of Hormuz disruption sent oil prices sharply higher, overwhelming the traditional safe-haven bid that geopolitical crises typically deliver to bonds. The 10-year yield rose 20 basis points to 4.14% even as Friday’s February payrolls report showed a loss of 92,000 jobs—the first negative print in years—creating a textbook […]
- [Treasury Yields Feb 2026: 10-Year Breaks Below 4%](https://mariemontcapital.com/treasury-yields-february-2026-10-year-below-4/): Treasury Yields February 2026: 10-Year Breaks Below 4% as Stagflation Risk and Iran Strikes Reshape Bond Markets | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending March 1, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Treasury yields fell across the curve this week as conflicting signals from Treasury markets — hot January PPI data (+0.5% headline, +0.8% services) alongside a meaningful growth deceleration — reinforced stagflation concerns that drove flight-to-quality demand for Treasuries. The 10-year yield declined 14 basis points to 3.94%, its lowest close since October 2024 and its first close below 4% since late November 2025, with the rally concentrated […]
- [Supreme Court IEEPA Tariffs Ruling: Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending February 22, 2026](https://mariemontcapital.com/supreme-court-ieepa-tariffs-ruling-treasury-yields-february-22-2026/): Supreme Court IEEPA Tariffs Ruling Reshapes Rate Outlook: Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending February 22, 2026 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending February 22, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Supreme Court’s 6-3 IEEPA tariffs ruling on February 20 was the week’s defining event, yet the paradoxical market response — Treasury yields rising despite tariff removal — illustrated the fiscal channel’s dominance over the inflation channel in current market pricing. Hawkish FOMC minutes released February 18 compressed rate-cut expectations and drove a bear flattening, with the 2-year yield leading the move higher at +7 basis […]
- [CPI January 2026: Bull-Flattening Rally Drives 10-Year Treasury to 4.05%](https://mariemontcapital.com/cpi-january-2026-duration-credit-pulse-february-15-2026/): CPI January 2026: Bull-Flattening Rally Drives 10-Year Treasury to 4.05% | Duration & Credit Pulse | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending February 15, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The January 2026 CPI January 2026 report delivered a positive surprise — headline inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year against a 2.5% consensus — catalyzing a broad Treasury rally that pushed the 10-year yield down 16 basis points to 4.05%, its lowest level since November 2025. The move was reinforced by a stronger-than-expected January payrolls print (+130,000 vs. approximately +65,000 consensus), which nonetheless carried a meaningful caveat: the BLS benchmark […]
- [January 2026 Labor Market Data Shakes Treasury Yields](https://mariemontcapital.com/january-2026-labor-market-treasury-yields-february-8/): January 2026 Labor Market Data Shakes Treasury Yields: Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending February 8, 2026 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending February 8, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: A cascade of deteriorating January 2026 labor market data drove Treasury yields lower across the curve, with the 10-year falling 3 basis points to 4.21% as JOLTS job openings dropped to 6.54 million—the lowest since September 2020—and ADP private payrolls printed at just 22,000. The government shutdown’s delay of January payrolls and CPI amplified positioning uncertainty, while record-setting demand for Oracle’s $25 billion bond offering underscored […]
- [FOMC January 2026 Rate Decision: Fed Holds, Warsh Nominated](https://mariemontcapital.com/fomc-january-2026-rate-decision-fed-holds-warsh-nomination/): FOMC January 2026 Rate Decision: Fed Holds as Warsh Nomination Reshapes Policy Outlook | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending February 1, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The FOMC January 2026 rate decision delivered an expected pause at 3.50-3.75%, but a notable 10-2 split vote and President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair introduced new uncertainty. Treasury yields exhibited bull steepening, with 2-year yields declining 7 basis points while 30-year yields rose 5 basis points, widening the 2s10s spread to 71 basis points. Credit spreads remained near historic tights—high yield at just the […]
- [Trump Greenland Tariffs Treasury Yields: 30-Year Hits 4.92%](https://mariemontcapital.com/trump-greenland-tariffs-treasury-yields-january-25-2026/): Trump Greenland Tariffs Treasury Yields: 30-Year Approaches 5% Before Recovery – Week Ending January 25, 2026 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending January 25, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Trump’s Greenland tariff threats and Japan’s government bond selloff created notable intraweek volatility, with the 30-year Treasury yield briefly touching 4.92%—its highest since August 2025—before both risks de-escalated and markets stabilized. Despite the turbulence, weekly Treasury changes were minimal: the 10-year yield finished essentially flat at 4.23% while credit spreads remained at historically tight levels, with both IG (69 bp) and HY (239 bp) OAS at just the […]
- [December CPI Eases: Treasury Yields Rise on Strong Labor](https://mariemontcapital.com/treasury-yields-january-2026-core-cpi-analysis/): December CPI Inflation Eases: Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Independence Concerns Mount | Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending January 18, 2026 Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending January 18, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: December CPI delivered an encouraging downside surprise with core inflation cooling to 2.6% year-over-year, yet Treasury yields rose 5-6 basis points across most of the curve as resilient labor data (initial claims at 198K versus 215K expected) reinforced the Fed’s patient stance. Credit spreads held near historic tights—high yield at 235 bp (2nd percentile) and investment grade at 71 bp (8th percentile)—despite the Department […]
- [December 2025 Jobs Report: Treasury Yields Bull Flatten](https://mariemontcapital.com/december-2025-jobs-report-treasury-yields-january-2026/): December Jobs Report January 2026: Treasury Yields Bull Flatten as Labor Market Cools | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending January 11, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The December jobs report delivered a mixed picture that reinforced expectations for an extended Fed pause—nonfarm payrolls added just 50,000 positions (missing the 73,000 consensus), yet unemployment fell to 4.4%. Treasury yields bull flattened as the front end rose modestly while long bonds rallied, with the 10-year finishing at 4.17% (-3 bp) and the 30-year at 4.81% (-6 bp). Credit spreads remained at historic tights, with high yield OAS […]
- [FOMC Minutes January 2026: Fed Division & Venezuela Oil Impact](https://mariemontcapital.com/fomc-minutes-january-2026-fed-division-venezuela-oil/): FOMC Minutes January 2026: Year-End Rally Masks Fed Division | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending January 4, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The first week of 2026 delivered a mild bear steepening as Treasury yields rose modestly across the curve, with the 10-year climbing 6 basis points to 4.19% at Friday’s close. FOMC minutes revealed the most divided committee in years—a 9-3 vote on the December rate cut—while economic data surprised to the upside. Weekend developments added geopolitical complexity: U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Maduro on January 3, and OPEC+ confirmed its Q1 output pause […]
- [Q3 GDP December 2025: Treasury Yields Steady as 4.3% Growth Beats Forecasts](https://mariemontcapital.com/q3-gdp-december-2025-treasury-yields/): Q3 GDP December 2025: Treasury Yields Steady as 4.3% Growth Beats Forecasts | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending December 27, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Treasury yields ended the holiday-shortened week marginally lower as the delayed Q3 GDP report revealed 4.3% annualized growth—the fastest pace in two years—while credit spreads compressed further to multi-year tights. The 10-year yield eased 2 basis points to 4.13%, constrained by thin holiday liquidity despite robust economic data. With high yield spreads at just the 5th percentile of their 5-year range and the VIX at the 12th percentile, markets are pricing near-perfect […]
- [FOMC December 2025: Fed Cuts 25bp Amid Hawkish Pivot, 10-Year Yield Falls to 4.15%](https://mariemontcapital.com/fomc-december-2025-rate-cut-analysis/): FOMC December 2025: Fed Cuts 25bp Amid Hawkish Pivot, 10-Year Yield Falls to 4.15% | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending December 19, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The FOMC December 2025 meeting delivered a 25 basis point cut to 3.50-3.75% with an unusually hawkish tone, as an atypical three-way dissent revealed deep divisions over the policy path. Treasury yields declined 2-5 basis points across the curve following a better-than-expected November CPI print (2.7% headline versus 3.1% expected), though the 30-year remains elevated at the 87th percentile of its 5-year range. Credit spreads held near multi-year lows—HY OAS […]
- [Fed December 2025 Rate Cut: Hawkish Pivot Steepens Treasury Curve](https://mariemontcapital.com/fed-december-2025-rate-cut-hawkish-pivot-treasury-curve/): Fed December 2025 Rate Cut: Hawkish Pivot Steepens Treasury Curve | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending December 12, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve delivered its third rate cut of 2025 on December 10, lowering the fed funds target to 3.50%-3.75%, but paired it with a materially hawkish shift in forward guidance that sent long-end Treasury yields higher. The revised dot plot now projects only one additional cut in 2026, down from two previously, triggering classic bear steepening as the 30-year yield rose 5 basis points to 4.85%—its 92nd percentile over five years—while […]
- [December Fed Rate Cut 2025: Yields Rise & Credit Spreads Tighten](https://mariemontcapital.com/december-fed-rate-cut-2025-treasury-yields/): December Fed Rate Cut 2025: Treasury Yields Rise as Markets Price 87% Cut Probability | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending December 7, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Mixed labor market signals dominated the week as ADP reported a 32,000 job contraction while initial jobless claims fell to a three-year low of 191,000. This “no hire, no fire” dynamic kept markets positioned for a December Fed rate cut, with CME FedWatch showing 87% probability for a 25bp reduction. Treasury yields rose 7-13bp in a modest bear steepening pattern, with the 10-year settling at 4.14%. Credit spreads tightened to […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: November 28, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/federal-reserve-december-rate-cut-treasury-yields-nov-2025/): Federal Reserve December Rate Cut: Treasury Yields Fall as Fed Signals Shift – Week Ending November 28, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending November 28, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Federal Reserve December rate cut expectations drove fixed income markets during a holiday-shortened week, with dovish commentary from Fed Governors Waller and Williams lifting cut probability to 82% from 35% earlier in the period. The 10-year Treasury yield declined 5 basis points to 4.01%, while credit spreads compressed meaningfully—high yield tightening 19 basis points to 265 bp despite consumer confidence falling to a 7-month low at […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: November 23, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/fed-december-rate-cut-odds-williams-treasury-yields-november-2025/): Fed December Rate Cut Odds Rise on Williams Comments: Treasury Yields Fall 8-11 bps | November 23, 2025 Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending November 23, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Treasury markets moved lower late week as NY Fed President Williams’ November 21 comments favoring additional near-term policy adjustment contrasted with earlier hawkish guidance from regional Fed presidents, with the 10-year yield declining 8 basis points to 4.07% as Fed December rate cut probability shifted from 32% to 75% within 48 hours. Market volatility reflected the absence of October inflation data following the 43-day government shutdown, leaving the Federal […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: November 16, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/treasury-yields-november-2025-shutdown-market-update/): Fed December Rate Cut 2025 Odds Collapse as Data Blackout Ends | Duration & Credit Pulse – November 16, 2025 Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending November 16, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The week of November 9-16 marked an important shift as the 43-day government shutdown ended, yet Fed December rate cut 2025 probability declined from 95% to approximately 40-50% amid significant FOMC divisions. Treasury yields continued rising with the curve advancing 5 basis points across all maturities despite October’s rate reduction, while credit markets maintained tight spreads—investment grade at 78 basis points (34th percentile) and high yield at […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: November 9, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-treasury-yields-government-shutdown/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending November 9, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending November 9, 2025 Executive Summary Key Developments: The government shutdown reached its 40th day, resulting in the suspension of major economic data releases. Treasury yields exhibited limited movement with the 10-year closing at 4.10%, up 2 basis points for the week. Credit spreads remain below historical averages, while alternative economic indicators present mixed signals. The Federal Reserve faces December policy decisions without complete economic data, with market-implied probability of a rate cut declining to 65%. Duration Dashboard Maturity Nov 2, 2025 […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: November 2, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/fomc-october-2025-fed-cuts-25bp-10-year-yield/): FOMC October 2025: Fed Cuts 25bp, 10-Year Treasury Rises to 4.08% | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending November 2, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve’s October 29 FOMC meeting delivered a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75-4.00%, though Chair Powell’s cautious forward guidance—indicating a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion”—contributed to higher Treasury yields, with the 10-year rising 8 basis points to 4.08% for the week. The 10-2 FOMC vote revealed differing views on the appropriate policy path given limited economic data availability due to the government shutdown. Credit spreads remained […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: October 26, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/government-shutdown-october-2025-treasury-yields-2/): Government Shutdown October 2025: Treasury Yields Break Below 4% as Data Blackout Drives Haven Demand | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending October 26, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The government shutdown October 2025 entered its fourth week, creating a significant data void that drove defensive Treasury positioning as the 10-year yield broke below 4% mid-week for the first time since April. While credit spreads remained at historic tights—IG OAS at just 71 basis points—the convergence of regional bank stress, absent economic data, and US-China trade tensions reinforced Treasuries’ safe-haven appeal even with a 99.6% probability of a […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: October 19, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/government-shutdown-october-2025-treasury-yields/): Credit Spreads Historic Lows October 2025: IG 73bp, HY 278bp Defy Shutdown Chaos | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending October 19, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Credit spreads compressed to 15-year lows with investment grade at 73 basis points and high yield at 278 basis points, defying day 19 of the federal government shutdown and escalating trade tensions. Fed Chair Powell’s October 14 speech signaling imminent quantitative tightening cessation and continued rate cuts overwhelmed fundamental concerns, driving Treasury yields modestly lower (10-year down 2 bps to 4.01%) while repo market stress episodes highlighted underlying liquidity […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: October 12, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-october-12-2025/): Government Shutdown October 2025: Treasury Yields Fall 8-9bp as VIX Surges 30% | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending October 12, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The government shutdown October 2025 created unprecedented market conditions as Treasury yields fell 8-9 basis points across the curve while credit markets experienced violent repricing—high yield spreads ballooned 40bp amid a 30% VIX surge to 21.66. The data blackout forced the Federal Reserve to signal continued easing without visibility into September employment or inflation figures, with FOMC minutes revealing rising “downside risks to employment” as the dominant policy concern. Friday’s trade war […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: October 5, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration__credit_pulse_october_5_2025/): Government Shutdown October 2025: Treasury Yields Fall as Jobs Data Vanishes | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending October 5, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The government shutdown beginning October 1 collided with deteriorating labor market data, creating an unprecedented policy vacuum as the September jobs report vanished and ADP showed the first employment contraction since 2023. Treasury yields fell 4-7 basis points across the curve as markets bet the Federal Reserve will be forced to ease aggressively despite missing its most critical economic indicator, while credit spreads remained frozen near historic tights—a dangerous disconnect between […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: September 28, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-september-28/): Fed Rate Cut September 2025: Treasury Yields Rise Despite 25bp Easing | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending September 28, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in September 2025 triggered a paradoxical fixed income response, with Treasury yields climbing despite the 25 basis point easing to 4.0-4.25%. The 10-year yield rose 5 basis points to 4.18% as stronger-than-expected economic data—including GDP revised up to 3.8% growth and jobless claims at just 218,000—challenged aggressive easing expectations, while credit spreads compressed to historic extremes with Investment Grade at 71 basis points (3rd percentile) […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: September 21, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-september-212025/): Fed Rate Cut September 2025: Treasury Yields Rise Despite First Easing | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending September 21, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in over four years delivered a 25 basis point reduction on September 17, yet Treasury yields paradoxically surged higher with the 10-year reaching 4.13%—marking the first time in seven Fed easing cycles that yields rose following an initial cut. This historic divergence, combined with credit spreads compressed to the 1st percentile for investment grade and 5th percentile for high yield, signals dangerous market complacency about […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: September 14, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-september-14-2025/): Jobless Claims 263,000: Fed Pivot Imminent as Labor Market Cracks | Duration & Credit Pulse – September 14, 2025 Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending September 14, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Jobless claims surging to 263,000—the highest since October 2021—definitively shifted the Federal Reserve narrative from inflation vigilance to employment rescue, with markets pricing 100% probability of rate cuts at the September 17 meeting. The week’s data dichotomy proved stark: August CPI accelerated to 2.9% year-over-year while PPI unexpectedly declined 0.1%, but labor market deterioration trumped all inflation concerns as Treasury yields declined across the curve and credit spreads […]
- [Duration & Credit Report: September 7, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-report-september-7-2025/): Jobs Report September 2025: Treasury Yields Collapse as 22K Payrolls Shock Markets | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending September 7, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The shocking August jobs report September 2025 delivered just 22,000 payrolls versus 75,000 expected, triggering the most dramatic Treasury rally since the banking crisis as the 10-year yield plunged 15.4 basis points to 4.08%, its lowest level since April. Yet credit markets exhibited remarkable disconnect, launching a record $90+ billion in new issuance while spreads remained pinned near historic tights—high yield at just the 10th percentile and investment grade at […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: August 31, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/short-form-duration-credit-pulse-august-24-2025/): Jackson Hole 2025: Fed Signals September Rate Cut as Treasury Curve Steepens | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending August 31, 2025 At A Glance THEME Jackson Hole Pivot KEY MOVE 2Y Yield -8bp to 3.62% RISK SIGNAL 30Y at 96th Percentile OUTLOOK 91% Sept Cut Priced Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Jackson Hole 2025 symposium delivered the clearest Fed pivot since 2019, yet market reactions proved surprisingly muted—2-year yields fell just 8 basis points versus expectations of 25-30bp declines, while 30-year yields paradoxically rose 5 basis points to 4.93%, reaching the 96th percentile of their […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: August 24, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-may-4-2025/): Jackson Hole 2025: Fed Pivots as Treasury Yields Drop 7bp | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending August 24, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole 2025 speech fundamentally shifted fixed income markets, driving 10-year Treasury yields down 6.4 basis points for the week as markets priced an 80%+ probability of a September rate cut. The dovish pivot came despite investment grade credit spreads sitting at 71 basis points—their tightest level in 25 years—while initial jobless claims jumped to 235,000, signaling potential labor market weakening that validates the Fed’s evolving stance. Duration Dashboard […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: August 17, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-august-17-2025/): Jackson Hole 2025 Anticipation: Treasury Yields Rise as Credit Spreads Compress | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending August 17, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: With just 5 days until Powell’s critical Jackson Hole address, fixed income markets exhibited extreme divergences that cannot persist. Treasury yields rose modestly as resilient consumer spending data pushed the 10-year to 4.32% while credit spreads compressed to historically extreme levels, with investment grade OAS at just the 4th percentile of its 5-year range. The week’s modest bear steepening—with 30-year yields rising 7 basis points versus a 1bp decline in 2-years—reflected […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: August 10, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-august-10-2025/): Treasury Yields August 2025: 30-Year Hits 94th Percentile as Fed Pivot Expectations Build | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending August 10, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Treasury yields August 2025 dynamics revealed extreme valuations with the 30-year bond reaching its 94th percentile while credit spreads compressed to multi-year tights, creating a dangerous disconnect between rate risk and credit risk. The week’s sparse economic calendar amplified technical factors as markets positioned for an anticipated Federal Reserve policy pivot, with the 10-year yield rising modestly to 4.28% despite building recession concerns and aggressive front-end rally expectations that […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: August 3, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-august-3-2025/): FOMC July 2025: Historic Fed Dissent Triggers Treasury Rally as Jobs Data Shocks Markets | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending August 3, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The FOMC July 2025 meeting delivered an unprecedented moment with the first dual Fed governor dissent since 1993, as Bowman and Waller voted for immediate rate cuts while the committee held steady at 4.25%-4.50%. This historic split, combined with Friday’s shocking employment report showing just 73,000 jobs added versus 105,000 expected and massive downward revisions, triggered a dramatic Treasury rally with yields plunging 11-24 basis points across the […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: July 27, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-july-27-2025/): Pre-FOMC July 2025: Fed Independence Under Fire as Markets Position | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending July 27, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Markets positioned defensively ahead of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting amid unprecedented political pressure on the Federal Reserve, with Treasury yields exhibiting bull flattening as the 10-year declined 3bp to 4.39% while positioning for a likely hawkish hold. The 30-year bond’s extreme valuation at the 97th percentile of five-year history contrasted sharply with credit spreads compressed to near-record tights—investment grade at just 71 basis points (6th percentile)—signaling dangerous complacency as expired tariff […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: July 20, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/d/): CPI Inflation July 2025: Treasury Yields Hit 5% as Manufacturing Rebounds | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending July 20, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: CPI inflation July 2025 data at 2.7% annual rate exposed unprecedented divergence from flat PPI readings, signaling tariff-driven distortions as businesses absorb costs rather than pass them through—for now. The 30-year Treasury yield’s march toward 5% (closing at 4.99%, 99th percentile) combined with manufacturing’s surprise rebound created the week’s defining paradox: economic strength amid inflation uncertainty that leaves the Fed paralyzed ahead of its July 29-30 meeting. Duration Dashboard – CPI […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: July 13, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-july-13-2025/): FOMC Minutes July 2025: Fed Signals Rate Cuts as Labor Market Weakens | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending July 13, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve’s June FOMC minutes released July 9 revealed that most participants favor rate cuts this year, marking a pivotal shift as labor market weakness emerged with ADP’s first private payroll decline (-33,000) since March 2023. Treasury yields edged higher despite dovish Fed signals, with the 10-year closing the week at 4.41% (87th percentile), while credit spreads remained near historic lows with investment grade at 77 basis points (25th […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: July 6, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-july-6-2025/): July 2025 Jobs Report: Fixed Income Steadies as Employment Beats | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending July 6, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The July 2025 jobs report delivered a positive surprise with 147,000 non-farm payrolls versus 110,000 consensus, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s patient stance even as Moody’s downgraded U.S. sovereign credit to Aa1 on Independence Day—completing an unprecedented trifecta of rating cuts alongside the $5 trillion debt ceiling increase. Treasury yields rose modestly with the 10-year reaching 4.35% (84th percentile), while the dollar’s 3.2% rebound from its worst first-half decline since 1973 helped stabilize […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: June 29, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-june-29-2025/): Israel-Iran Conflict Treasury Yields: Historic Geopolitical Shock Meets Tight Credit Spreads | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending June 29, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Israel-Iran conflict that erupted with US strikes on June 22 delivered the most significant geopolitical shock to fixed income markets in years, yet credit spreads barely budged from historic tights even as Treasury yields whipsawed on competing safe-haven and inflation narratives. The successful June 24 ceasefire triggered oil’s sharpest single-day decline (-7.2%) since 2020, driving a decisive bull steepening in Treasuries with 2-year yields plunging 16 basis points while high […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: June 22, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-june-22-2025/): FOMC June 2025: Fed Holds Steady as Housing Collapses & Iran-Israel War Erupts | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending June 22, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The June 17-18 FOMC meeting delivered a dovish hold at 4.25-4.50% with projections for two cuts by year-end, even as housing starts collapsed 9.8% to five-year lows and the Israeli-Iranian conflict erupted into direct military confrontation. Treasury yields declined modestly at the short end (2-4 basis points) while remaining virtually unchanged at the long end, as credit spreads compressed to historically tight levels, with high yield outperforming investment grade […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: June 15, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-june-15-2025/): CPI Inflation June 2025: Benign 0.1% Print Anchors Rate Cut Expectations | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending June 15, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Fixed income markets found their equilibrium during the week of June 8-15, 2025 as May’s CPI inflation came in at just 0.1% monthly—the most benign reading in eighteen months—while consumer sentiment staged its first improvement of the year with an 8-point surge to 60.5, crushing expectations. This goldilocks combination of controlled inflation and improving confidence validated the Federal Reserve’s patient stance at 4.25%-4.50% while opening the door for potential rate cuts […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: June 8, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-june-8-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending June 8, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending June 8, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Synchronized economic contraction emerged as both ISM indices fell below 50 for the first time since 2023, with services PMI’s shocking plunge to 49.9 catalyzing a dramatic fixed income rotation that saw Treasury yields initially spike to 4.51% before rallying sharply on growth fears. The week’s contradictory signals—139,000 payrolls beating expectations while ADP showed just 37,000 jobs and manufacturing remained mired in recession—left markets grappling with stagflationary dynamics as wage growth persisted at 3.9% […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: June 1, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-june-1-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending June 1, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending June 1, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Fixed income markets navigated a paradox of deteriorating fundamentals and improving technicals as the ADP employment shock of just 37,000 jobs coincided with surprisingly benign 0.1% CPI inflation, creating the perfect recipe for a Treasury rally that saw yields fall 9-12 basis points across the curve. While a federal court declared Trump’s IEEPA tariffs illegal on May 28, an immediate stay preserved the status quo, leaving markets to price gradual economic weakness rather than […]
- [Yield Curve Playbook](https://mariemontcapital.com/toolkit-example-post/)
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: May 25, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-may-25-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending May 25, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending May 25, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Moody’s historic downgrade of US sovereign debt to Aa1 dominated fixed income markets during the week of May 19-25, completing the trilogy of rating cuts and forcing a fundamental reassessment of Treasury risk premiums. The 10-year yield rose modestly to 4.51% while the 30-year breached 5.0% as markets exhibited classic bear steepening, even as front-end yields showed surprising resilience. A record-setting TIPS auction achieved a 2.220% real yield—the second-highest in 16 years—while VIX surged […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: May 18, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-may-18-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending May 18, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending May 18, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Moody’s historic downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16 shattered market complacency, marking the first time all three major rating agencies have rated America below their top tier. The downgrade, driven by concerns over the nation’s $36.2 trillion debt burden and political dysfunction, sent 30-year yields briefly above 5% while traditional correlations broke down—Treasury bonds failed to rally despite equity weakness, challenging fundamental assumptions about their safe-haven status in […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: May 11, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-may-11-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending May 11, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending May 11, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve maintained its “patient” stance at 4.25-4.50% amid heightened dual-sided risks, marking the first explicit acknowledgment of both inflation and unemployment threats since the hiking cycle began. Treasury yields rose modestly with 10-year climbing 7bp to 4.38%, while credit markets demonstrated resilience with high yield spreads tightening 9bp to 336bp despite manufacturing and services PMIs both slipping into contraction territory—signaling stagflationary risks that position markets for Moody’s historic sovereign downgrade just days […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: May 4, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-may-4-2025-2/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending May 4, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending May 4, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Fixed income markets stabilized during the week ending May 4 following the most severe bond market dislocation since COVID-19, triggered by President Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements. Despite consumer confidence collapsing to pandemic-era lows (86.0) and manufacturing remaining in contraction (ISM PMI: 48.7%), credit spreads began recovering from their widest levels in two years—investment grade tightened to 95bp from 120bp peak while high yield improved to 425bp from 461bp. Most significantly, the traditional negative […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: April 27, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-april-27-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending April 27, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending April 27, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Fixed income markets stabilized following April’s tariff-induced turmoil, with Treasury yields declining across the curve except for long bonds as Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari’s call for “extended” policy patience anchored short rates while inflation concerns pressured the 30-year. Credit spreads tightened substantially from stress levels—investment grade by 15 basis points and high yield by 45 basis points—though remain elevated versus pre-tariff announcement levels, signaling persistent uncertainty about trade policy’s economic impact. Duration Dashboard Maturity […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: April 20, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-april-20-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending April 20, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending April 20, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Fixed income markets found tentative footing during April 13-20 as below-consensus inflation data (CPI 0.2% vs 0.3% expected, PPI -0.5% vs +0.2%) provided tactical relief from the historic selloff triggered by Trump’s April 2nd tariff announcement, though massive fund outflows ($46 billion) and elevated volatility (MOVE index at 140) signaled persistent fragility beneath the surface calm. Duration Dashboard Maturity April 13, 2025 April 20, 2025 Weekly Δ 5-Year Percentile 2‑Year 4.42% 4.45% +3 bp […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: April 13, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-april-13-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending April 13, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending April 13, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: President Trump’s sweeping tariff implementation on April 2 triggered the most violent fixed income selloff since 2013, with 10-year Treasury yields surging 37 basis points as traditional safe-haven correlations broke down completely. Credit markets froze for three consecutive days while high yield spreads exploded 119 basis points wider to 461bp, forcing institutional deleveraging reminiscent of March 2020’s liquidity crisis and raising fundamental questions about Treasury market resilience in an era of fiscal dominance. Duration […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: April 6, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-april-6-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending April 6, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending April 6, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: President Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2 triggered the most severe fixed income market disruption since COVID-19, with 10-year Treasury yields surging nearly 50 basis points while credit spreads exploded to crisis levels. The unprecedented policy shock—imposing a universal 10% baseline tariff plus reciprocal tariffs up to 34%—forced a complete shutdown of corporate bond issuance for three consecutive days and sent the VIX soaring above 60, ultimately compelling Trump to announce […]
- [Consumer Confidence Crashes to 12-Year Low at 92.9 as Manufacturing PMI Falls Below 50](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-consumer-confidence-crashes-march-30-2025/):   Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending March 30, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Fixed income markets navigated choppy waters as tariff uncertainty collided with mixed economic signals, leaving Treasury yields range-bound while credit spreads began their journey wider from historically tight levels. The 10-year yield held at 4.27% despite intraweek volatility exceeding 20 basis points, as traders balanced flight-to-quality flows against inflation fears from looming April tariff announcements. With consumer confidence plummeting to multi-year lows and manufacturing slipping into contraction, markets positioned defensively ahead of what would become April’s dramatic selloff—making this week the calm before the credit storm. […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: March 30, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-march-30-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending March 30, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending March 30, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Fixed income markets navigated choppy waters as tariff uncertainty collided with mixed economic signals, leaving Treasury yields range-bound while credit spreads began their journey wider from historically tight levels. The 10-year yield held at 4.27% despite intraweek volatility exceeding 20 basis points, as traders balanced flight-to-quality flows against inflation fears from looming April tariff announcements. With consumer confidence plummeting to multi-year lows and manufacturing slipping into contraction, markets positioned defensively ahead of what would […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: March 23, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-march-23-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending March 23, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending March 23, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The historic Bank of Japan pivot ending negative rates combined with Fed patience on policy created unprecedented global monetary divergence, sending Treasury yields lower across the curve while credit markets remained remarkably resilient. The 10-year yield fell 6.6 basis points to 4.25% as recession fears intensified, yet corporate bond issuance surged past $200 billion for March—highlighting the paradox of strong technical demand amid deteriorating economic fundamentals that defines today’s fixed income landscape. Duration Dashboard […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: March 16, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-march-16-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending March 16, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending March 16, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Trade war escalation triggered the most severe fixed income volatility of 2025, with credit spreads surging to multi-month highs while Treasury yields whipsawed between 4.16% and 4.33% as flight-to-quality flows battled tariff-driven inflation fears. The S&P 500’s entry into correction territory on March 13 marked a regime shift from complacency to crisis, forcing investors to confront the reality that traditional correlations have broken down in an era of weaponized trade policy and fiscal dominance. […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: March 9, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-march-2-2025-2/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending March 9, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending March 9, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Tariff implementation on March 4 triggered the most significant fixed income volatility of 2025, with Treasury yields whipsawing between haven demand and inflation fears while credit spreads flashed warning signals. The 10-year yield traded in a dramatic 4.2-4.5% range as markets grappled with competing forces of flight-to-quality flows and tariff-induced inflation concerns, ultimately closing the week at 4.30%—up 9 basis points in classic bear steepening fashion that saw long bonds underperform. Duration Dashboard Maturity […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: March 2, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-march-2-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending March 2, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending March 2, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Trump’s surprise 25% EU tariff announcement on February 26 shattered the Treasury rally and triggered credit spread widening from historic tights, forcing markets to confront stagflation risks just as Fed Vice Chair Barr resigned. The 10-year yield plunged 22 basis points to 4.21% before tariff fears halted the decline, while investment grade spreads widened 5bp and high yield surged 14bp as risk-off sentiment returned—marking the definitive end of the early-2025 goldilocks environment and ushering […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: February 23, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-february-23-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending February 23, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending February 23, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Credit markets displayed dangerous complacency as spreads compressed to pre-crisis tights despite hawkish FOMC minutes revealing deep Fed concerns about tariff-driven inflation risks. Treasury yields declined modestly with 2s10s steepening to 23 basis points, suggesting markets are pricing an extended Fed pause—but historically tight credit spreads at the 94th percentile offer minimal cushion for the policy uncertainty ahead, creating asymmetric downside risk for spread products. Duration Dashboard Maturity February 16, 2025 February 23, 2025 […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: February 16, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-february-16-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending February 16, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending February 16, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Hot inflation data shattered rate cut hopes as January CPI surged 0.5% monthly—the highest since August 2023—while Trump’s steel tariffs and China’s energy retaliation created a toxic stagflationary cocktail. The modest Treasury rally and credit spread tightening belie deeper structural concerns: with inflation re-accelerating, trade wars escalating, and fiscal deficits ballooning, fixed income markets face a regime change requiring entirely new analytical frameworks where political risk dominates traditional metrics. Duration Dashboard Maturity February 9, […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: February 9, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-february-9-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending February 9, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending February 9, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Trump’s tariff bombshell triggered dramatic curve flattening as short rates rose on inflation fears while long rates fell on growth concerns. The January employment report disappointed at 143,000 jobs versus 170,000 expected, yet unemployment paradoxically fell to 4.0%, keeping the Fed firmly on hold at 4.25%-4.50%. With the 2-year yield up 9 basis points but the 30-year down 10 basis points, markets are pricing a complex scenario of near-term inflation pressure followed by eventual […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: January 31, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-january-31-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending January 31, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending January 31, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve held rates steady as expected while Treasury yields edged lower despite President Trump’s tariff announcement on Canada, Mexico, and China on Friday. The week’s dichotomy—hawkish Fed positioning amid robust Q4 GDP growth juxtaposed with markets’ muted reaction to escalating trade tensions—underscores the delicate balance between policy uncertainty and economic momentum. Duration Dashboard Maturity January 24, 2025 January 31, 2025 Weekly Δ 5-Year Percentile 2‑Year 4.27% 4.22% -5 bp 67th %ile (elevated) […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: January 24, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-january-24-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending January 24, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending January 24, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Markets displayed remarkable equilibrium during Trump’s inauguration week, with Treasury yields edging marginally lower while credit spreads compressed to extreme tights. The VIX’s decline to the 18th percentile signals complacency despite the administration’s sweeping Day One executive orders, suggesting investors are betting on pro-business policies outweighing potential trade and immigration disruptions. Duration Dashboard Maturity January 17, 2025 January 24, 2025 Weekly Δ 5-Year Percentile 2‑Year 4.29% 4.27% -2 bp 69th %ile (elevated) 5‑Year 4.43% […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: January 17, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/january-17-2025-duration-credit-pulse-2/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending January 17, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending January 17, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Treasury yields retreated meaningfully as December CPI data reinforced disinflationary trends, while pre-inauguration uncertainty drove a classic flight-to-quality bid. The 10-year yield’s 13bp decline from extreme 99th percentile levels signals markets are pricing a more benign policy path ahead, though positioning remains stretched as investors await clarity on Trump’s trade and fiscal agenda. Duration Dashboard Maturity January 10, 2025 January 17, 2025 Weekly Δ 5-Year Percentile 2‑Year 4.38% 4.29% -10 bp 71st %ile (elevated) […]
- [Duration & Credit Pulse: January 10, 2025](https://mariemontcapital.com/duration-credit-pulse-january-10-2025/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending January 10, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending January 10, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: A blockbuster December jobs report and hawkish Fed minutes from earlier in the week drove Treasury yields to extreme levels (99th percentiles), as markets priced peak uncertainty about Trump policies and monetary policy normalization. The labor market’s resilience, combined with Federal Reserve concerns about Trump’s inflationary policies, created the perfect storm for the bond selloff. Duration Dashboard Maturity January 3, 2025 January 10, 2025 Weekly Δ 5-Year Percentile 2‑Year 4.28% 4.38% +10 bp 74th […]

## Pages

- [Home](https://mariemontcapital.com/): Mariemont Capital is a Private, Fixed-Income Fund Specializing in Macroeconomic Trend Analysis. The Fund is Designed to Limit Volatility While Producing Monthly Income and Liquidity. The Fund
- [Terms & Conditions](https://mariemontcapital.com/terms-conditions/): Terms & Conditions IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING ACCESS RESTRICTIONS PLEASE READ THESE TERMS CAREFULLY BEFORE ACCESSING THIS WEBSITE MARIEMONT CAPITAL LLCPRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL An Ohio Limited Liability Company STRICT ACCESS WARNING THIS WEBSITE IS STRICTLY LIMITED TO QUALIFIED INVESTORS WITH PRE-EXISTING RELATIONSHIPS WITH MARIEMONT CAPITAL. UNAUTHORIZED ACCESS IS PROHIBITED AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO CRIMINAL AND CIVIL PENALTIES. BY ACCESSING THIS WEBSITE, YOU CONSENT TO MONITORING AND RECORDING OF ALL ACTIVITIES. 1. ACCESS RESTRICTIONS AND QUALIFICATIONS By accessing this website, you acknowledge and represent that: 1.1 Accredited Investor Status You are an “accredited investor” as defined in Rule 501(a) of Regulation […]
- [Privacy Policy](https://mariemontcapital.com/privacy-policy/): PRIVACY POLICY MARIEMONT CAPITAL LLC Effective Date: June 4, 2025 1. INTRODUCTION Mariemont Capital LLC (“Mariemont Capital,” “we,” “us,” or “our”), an Ohio limited liability company, is committed to protecting the privacy and confidentiality of personal information. This Privacy Policy describes how we collect, use, disclose, and protect information when you access our website or engage with our services. This Privacy Policy applies only to qualified investors who have met our eligibility requirements and have been granted access to our website. By accessing our website, you consent to the practices described in this Privacy Policy. 2. INFORMATION WE COLLECT 2.1 […]
- [Cookie Policy](https://mariemontcapital.com/cookie-policy/): COOKIE POLICY MARIEMONT CAPITAL LLC Effective Date: June 4, 2025 1. INTRODUCTION This Cookie Policy explains how Mariemont Capital LLC (“Mariemont Capital,” “we,” “us,” or “our”), an Ohio limited liability company, uses cookies and similar tracking technologies on our restricted-access website. This policy provides information about what cookies are, what types we use, and how you can manage them. By accessing our website, you consent to our use of cookies as described in this policy. 2. WHAT ARE COOKIES? Cookies are small text files that are placed on your device when you visit a website. They help websites remember information […]
- [Elementor #287](https://mariemontcapital.com/elementor-287/): Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending January 3, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending January 3, 2025 Macro Snapshot • Rates: 10‑year U.S. Treasury ↓ 3 bp to 4.60 % • Credit: IG OAS +2 bp → 74 bp; HY OAS –8 bp → 279 bp • Equities: S&P 500 –0.5 % for the week • Geo: 119th Congress convened on January 3; renewed tariff and defense‑spending debates could lift inflation expectations Duration Dashboard Maturity December 27, 2024 January 3, 2025 Δ (bp) 2‑Yr 4.33 % 4.28 % – 5 5‑Yr 4.46 % 4.41 % […]
- [Contact Us](https://mariemontcapital.com/contact-us/): Contact Us Contact Us At Mariemont Capital, we’re committed to delivering disciplined, macro-driven fixed-income strategies that prioritize capital preservation and consistent, risk-adjusted returns. If you’d like to learn more about our investment approach or explore how we can support your financial objectives, please complete the form below with your contact details and a brief message. A member of our team will review your submission and be in touch promptly.
- [Insights](https://mariemontcapital.com/insights/): Insights All Insights SearchCategoryAllFixed IncomeMarket Analysismonthly manager notesToolkitweekly summariesWeekly UpdatesInvestment StrategiesAll90-day tariff pausecalm before storm March 2025consumer confidence 92.9consumer confidence crashcredit market complacencycredit spreads 15th percentileDuration Credit Pulse March 30expectations index 65.2HY spreads 342bpmanufacturing PMI 49.8manufacturing services divergencetariff uncertainty weekly summaries Duration & Credit Pulse: September 28, 2025 Fed Rate Cut September 2025: Treasury Yields Rise Despite 25bp Easing | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse … September 28, 2025 weekly summaries Duration & Credit Pulse: September 21, 2025 Fed Rate Cut September 2025: Treasury Yields Rise Despite First Easing | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit […]
- [Education](https://mariemontcapital.com/education/): Education Videos Toolkit Playlist 4 Videos Tackling Credit Spreads Mailbox Money Understanding Duration — A Core Risk‑Management Tool Tackling Credit Spreads Toolkit Example Post It is a long established fact that a reader will be distracted by the readable content of a page when looking at its layout. The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution of letters, as opposed to using ‘Content here, content here’, making it look like readable English. Many desktop publishing packages and web page editors now use Lorem Ipsum as their default model text, and a search for ‘lorem […]
- [About Us](https://mariemontcapital.com/about-us/): About Us Kevin Taylor Founder & Chief Investment Officer As founder and Chief Investment Officer of Mariemont Capital, Kevin Taylor applies his 26 years of fixed income trading experience to identify value within the non-agency residential mortgage backed securities market.   Kevin differentiated himself by successfully navigating the MBS market during the credit crisis.  His deep understanding of highly complex structures protects investors from unforeseen risks while providing superior risk adjusted return on investment. Prior to founding Mariemont Capital, Kevin managed Fifth Third Securities mortgage backed securities trading desk.  His responsibilities included market making activities for institutional investors including insurance companies, […]
- [The Fund](https://mariemontcapital.com/the-fund/): Portfolio Growth Chart Portfolio Growth – $10 Million Initial Investment 12 Year Performance Comparison – December 2013 to February 2026 1 yr 5 yr 10 yr All Fund Overview Mariemont Capital is a private, fixed-income fund specializing in macroeconomic trend analysis. The fund is designed to limit volatility while producing monthly income and liquidity. Mariemont Capital was founded in 2014 by CIO Kevin Taylor who has 27 years of experience in trading, asset management, and macroeconomic trend analysis. Kevin Taylor leverages his expertise to exploit market mispricings and generate alpha for Mariemont Capital. Year-to-Date Returns Performance Fund Performance Analysis – […]


[comment]: # (Generated by Hostinger Tools Plugin)