December 2025 Jobs Report: Treasury Yields Bull Flatten
December Jobs Report January 2026: Treasury Yields Bull Flatten as Labor Market Cools | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending January 11, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The December jobs report delivered a mixed picture that reinforced expectations for an extended Fed pause—nonfarm payrolls added just 50,000 positions (missing the 73,000 […]
FOMC Minutes January 2026: Fed Division & Venezuela Oil Impact
FOMC Minutes January 2026: Year-End Rally Masks Fed Division | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending January 4, 2026 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The first week of 2026 delivered a mild bear steepening as Treasury yields rose modestly across the curve, with the 10-year climbing 6 basis points to 4.19% at […]
Q3 GDP December 2025: Treasury Yields Steady as 4.3% Growth Beats Forecasts
Q3 GDP December 2025: Treasury Yields Steady as 4.3% Growth Beats Forecasts | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending December 27, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Treasury yields ended the holiday-shortened week marginally lower as the delayed Q3 GDP report revealed 4.3% annualized growth—the fastest pace in two years—while credit spreads compressed further […]
FOMC December 2025: Fed Cuts 25bp Amid Hawkish Pivot, 10-Year Yield Falls to 4.15%
FOMC December 2025: Fed Cuts 25bp Amid Hawkish Pivot, 10-Year Yield Falls to 4.15% | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending December 19, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The FOMC December 2025 meeting delivered a 25 basis point cut to 3.50-3.75% with an unusually hawkish tone, as an atypical three-way dissent revealed deep […]
Fed December 2025 Rate Cut: Hawkish Pivot Steepens Treasury Curve
Fed December 2025 Rate Cut: Hawkish Pivot Steepens Treasury Curve | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending December 12, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve delivered its third rate cut of 2025 on December 10, lowering the fed funds target to 3.50%-3.75%, but paired it with a materially hawkish […]
December Fed Rate Cut 2025: Yields Rise & Credit Spreads Tighten
December Fed Rate Cut 2025: Treasury Yields Rise as Markets Price 87% Cut Probability | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending December 7, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Mixed labor market signals dominated the week as ADP reported a 32,000 job contraction while initial jobless claims fell to a three-year low of 191,000. […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: November 28, 2025
Federal Reserve December Rate Cut: Treasury Yields Fall as Fed Signals Shift – Week Ending November 28, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending November 28, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Federal Reserve December rate cut expectations drove fixed income markets during a holiday-shortened week, with dovish commentary from Fed Governors Waller […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: November 23, 2025
Fed December Rate Cut Odds Rise on Williams Comments: Treasury Yields Fall 8-11 bps | November 23, 2025 Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending November 23, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Treasury markets moved lower late week as NY Fed President Williams’ November 21 comments favoring additional near-term policy adjustment contrasted with earlier hawkish guidance […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: November 16, 2025
Fed December Rate Cut 2025 Odds Collapse as Data Blackout Ends | Duration & Credit Pulse – November 16, 2025 Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending November 16, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The week of November 9-16 marked an important shift as the 43-day government shutdown ended, yet Fed December rate cut 2025 probability […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: November 9, 2025
Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending November 9, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending November 9, 2025 Executive Summary Key Developments: The government shutdown reached its 40th day, resulting in the suspension of major economic data releases. Treasury yields exhibited limited movement with the 10-year closing at 4.10%, up 2 […]
