Duration & Credit Pulse: November 16, 2025
Fed December Rate Cut 2025 Odds Collapse as Data Blackout Ends | Duration & Credit Pulse – November 16, 2025 Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending November 16, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The week of November 9-16 marked an important shift as the 43-day government shutdown ended, yet Fed December rate cut 2025 probability […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: November 9, 2025
Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending November 9, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending November 9, 2025 Executive Summary Key Developments: The government shutdown reached its 40th day, resulting in the suspension of major economic data releases. Treasury yields exhibited limited movement with the 10-year closing at 4.10%, up 2 […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: November 2, 2025
FOMC October 2025: Fed Cuts 25bp, 10-Year Treasury Rises to 4.08% | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending November 2, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve’s October 29 FOMC meeting delivered a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75-4.00%, though Chair Powell’s cautious forward guidance—indicating a December cut is […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: October 26, 2025
Government Shutdown October 2025: Treasury Yields Break Below 4% as Data Blackout Drives Haven Demand | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending October 26, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The government shutdown October 2025 entered its fourth week, creating a significant data void that drove defensive Treasury positioning as the 10-year yield broke […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: October 19, 2025
Credit Spreads Historic Lows October 2025: IG 73bp, HY 278bp Defy Shutdown Chaos | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending October 19, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Credit spreads compressed to 15-year lows with investment grade at 73 basis points and high yield at 278 basis points, defying day 19 of […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: October 12, 2025
Government Shutdown October 2025: Treasury Yields Fall 8-9bp as VIX Surges 30% | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending October 12, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The government shutdown October 2025 created unprecedented market conditions as Treasury yields fell 8-9 basis points across the curve while credit markets experienced violent repricing—high yield spreads […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: October 5, 2025
Government Shutdown October 2025: Treasury Yields Fall as Jobs Data Vanishes | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending October 5, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The government shutdown beginning October 1 collided with deteriorating labor market data, creating an unprecedented policy vacuum as the September jobs report vanished and ADP showed […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: September 28, 2025
Fed Rate Cut September 2025: Treasury Yields Rise Despite 25bp Easing | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending September 28, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in September 2025 triggered a paradoxical fixed income response, with Treasury yields climbing despite the 25 basis point easing to […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: September 21, 2025
Fed Rate Cut September 2025: Treasury Yields Rise Despite First Easing | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending September 21, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in over four years delivered a 25 basis point reduction on September 17, yet Treasury yields paradoxically surged higher with […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: September 14, 2025
Jobless Claims 263,000: Fed Pivot Imminent as Labor Market Cracks | Duration & Credit Pulse – September 14, 2025 Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending September 14, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Jobless claims surging to 263,000—the highest since October 2021—definitively shifted the Federal Reserve narrative from inflation vigilance to employment rescue, with markets pricing […]
