Duration & Credit Pulse: November 2, 2025
FOMC October 2025: Fed Cuts 25bp, 10-Year Treasury Rises to 4.08% | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending November 2, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve’s October 29 FOMC meeting delivered a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75-4.00%, though Chair Powell’s cautious forward guidance—indicating a December cut is […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: October 26, 2025
Government Shutdown October 2025: Treasury Yields Break Below 4% as Data Blackout Drives Haven Demand | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending October 26, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The government shutdown October 2025 entered its fourth week, creating a significant data void that drove defensive Treasury positioning as the 10-year yield broke […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: October 19, 2025
Credit Spreads Historic Lows October 2025: IG 73bp, HY 278bp Defy Shutdown Chaos | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending October 19, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Credit spreads compressed to 15-year lows with investment grade at 73 basis points and high yield at 278 basis points, defying day 19 of […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: October 12, 2025
Government Shutdown October 2025: Treasury Yields Fall 8-9bp as VIX Surges 30% | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending October 12, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The government shutdown October 2025 created unprecedented market conditions as Treasury yields fell 8-9 basis points across the curve while credit markets experienced violent repricing—high yield spreads […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: October 5, 2025
Government Shutdown October 2025: Treasury Yields Fall as Jobs Data Vanishes | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending October 5, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The government shutdown beginning October 1 collided with deteriorating labor market data, creating an unprecedented policy vacuum as the September jobs report vanished and ADP showed […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: September 28, 2025
Fed Rate Cut September 2025: Treasury Yields Rise Despite 25bp Easing | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending September 28, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in September 2025 triggered a paradoxical fixed income response, with Treasury yields climbing despite the 25 basis point easing to […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: September 21, 2025
Fed Rate Cut September 2025: Treasury Yields Rise Despite First Easing | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending September 21, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in over four years delivered a 25 basis point reduction on September 17, yet Treasury yields paradoxically surged higher with […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: September 14, 2025
Jobless Claims 263,000: Fed Pivot Imminent as Labor Market Cracks | Duration & Credit Pulse – September 14, 2025 Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending September 14, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Jobless claims surging to 263,000—the highest since October 2021—definitively shifted the Federal Reserve narrative from inflation vigilance to employment rescue, with markets pricing […]
Duration & Credit Report: September 7, 2025
Jobs Report September 2025: Treasury Yields Collapse as 22K Payrolls Shock Markets | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending September 7, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The shocking August jobs report September 2025 delivered just 22,000 payrolls versus 75,000 expected, triggering the most dramatic Treasury rally since the banking crisis as […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: August 31, 2025
Jackson Hole 2025: Fed Signals September Rate Cut as Treasury Curve Steepens | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending August 31, 2025 At A Glance THEME Jackson Hole Pivot KEY MOVE 2Y Yield -8bp to 3.62% RISK SIGNAL 30Y at 96th Percentile OUTLOOK 91% Sept Cut Priced Executive Summary Bottom Line: […]
