Duration & Credit Pulse: July 27, 2025
Pre-FOMC July 2025: Fed Independence Under Fire as Markets Position | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending July 27, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Markets positioned defensively ahead of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting amid unprecedented political pressure on the Federal Reserve, with Treasury yields exhibiting bull flattening as the 10-year […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: July 20, 2025
CPI Inflation July 2025: Treasury Yields Hit 5% as Manufacturing Rebounds | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending July 20, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: CPI inflation July 2025 data at 2.7% annual rate exposed unprecedented divergence from flat PPI readings, signaling tariff-driven distortions as businesses absorb costs rather than pass […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: July 13, 2025
FOMC Minutes July 2025: Fed Signals Rate Cuts as Labor Market Weakens | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending July 13, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve’s June FOMC minutes released July 9 revealed that most participants favor rate cuts this year, marking a pivotal shift as labor market […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: July 6, 2025
July 2025 Jobs Report: Fixed Income Steadies as Employment Beats | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending July 6, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The July 2025 jobs report delivered a positive surprise with 147,000 non-farm payrolls versus 110,000 consensus, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s patient stance even as Moody’s downgraded U.S. […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: June 29, 2025
Israel-Iran Conflict Treasury Yields: Historic Geopolitical Shock Meets Tight Credit Spreads | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending June 29, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The Israel-Iran conflict that erupted with US strikes on June 22 delivered the most significant geopolitical shock to fixed income markets in years, yet credit spreads […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: June 22, 2025
FOMC June 2025: Fed Holds Steady as Housing Collapses & Iran-Israel War Erupts | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending June 22, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: The June 17-18 FOMC meeting delivered a dovish hold at 4.25-4.50% with projections for two cuts by year-end, even as housing starts collapsed 9.8% […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: June 15, 2025
CPI Inflation June 2025: Benign 0.1% Print Anchors Rate Cut Expectations | Duration & Credit Pulse Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending June 15, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Fixed income markets found their equilibrium during the week of June 8-15, 2025 as May’s CPI inflation came in at just 0.1% monthly—the most benign reading […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: June 8, 2025
Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending June 8, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending June 8, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Synchronized economic contraction emerged as both ISM indices fell below 50 for the first time since 2023, with services PMI’s shocking plunge to 49.9 catalyzing a dramatic fixed income […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: June 1, 2025
Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending June 1, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending June 1, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Fixed income markets navigated a paradox of deteriorating fundamentals and improving technicals as the ADP employment shock of just 37,000 jobs coincided with surprisingly benign 0.1% CPI inflation, creating […]
Duration & Credit Pulse: May 25, 2025
Duration & Credit Pulse – Week Ending May 25, 2025 | Mariemont Capital Duration & Credit Pulse Week Ending May 25, 2025 Executive Summary Bottom Line: Moody’s historic downgrade of US sovereign debt to Aa1 dominated fixed income markets during the week of May 19-25, completing the trilogy of rating cuts and forcing a fundamental […]
